McFeatters: In U.S., politics undermines climate consensus

Three years ago 77 percent of Americans believed the Earth is getting warmer. Today, despite more scientific evidence that global warming is a real threat, only 57 percent agree.

The poll of 1,500, taken by the reputable Pew Center for the People and the Press, also found that only 36 percent of those surveyed believe that human activities are making the globe warmer and that it is a serious problem.

This is alarming. Not only do a lot of Americans not know what they are talking about but also the nation is becoming so polarized politically that common sense has become a victim.

The Environmental Protection Agency says there is no doubt that climate change is a documented, human-driven, scientifically provable fact. Less certain but still worrisome are the likely effects.

The EPA says they include flooding in coastal areas, more intense hurricanes, more severe droughts where water shortages already exist, more deaths caused by heat, disappearing species and shifting agricultural patterns causing massive famines. There already are vast patterns of deforestation, desertification, disappearance of species and immigration.

Of course, the Earth's weather has changed over time by orbiting changes, volcanic eruptions and the amount of energy released by the sun. But scientists say the eight warmest years on record, which began in 1850, all occurred since 1998, with the warmest year 2005.

It is true that not all scientists are persuaded that this is a harmful trend. But most are. The Earth's temperature will rise between 3.2 and 7.2 degrees Fahrenheit within our children's lifespan. By the end of the century, the world could be a much different place if carbon dioxide levels emitted into the atmosphere aren't decreased.

It is puzzling why so many people refuse to accept basic science. Is it selfish - I'll be dead by then so why does it matter? Is it parochial - I live on a hill far inland so tsunamis don't concern me? Is it blind faith - there will be a magic bullet that will solve the problem in time?

Is it nationalism - the U.S. and other wealthy nations should not reduce emissions if developing countries don't as well? Is it fear - cutting pollution might eliminate my job? Is it political - I won't believe it until Rush Limbaugh tells me it's so? Is it nonsensical - I can't stand Al Gore so I won't believe anything he says?

From Dec. 7-18, there will be another international attempt to reach a consensus on what should be done to try to save the planet. Scientists and political leaders will meet in Copenhagen to hold climate change talks sponsored by the United Nations. Some think there should be a limit of no more than 350 parts per million of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, an unlikely scenario. Already there are about 390 parts per million - the highest level in 15 million years.

Millions of people are wondering what the United States will do in Copenhagen. For many reasons, some legitimate, some less so, the U.S. did not agree to the 1997 Kyoto Accords on global warming, and there is lingering bitterness against the U.S. and even disbelief that the country that fueled the environmental movement in the last century should now drag its feet in the 21st century.

The Obama administration is more sympathetic to the goals of the talks than the Bush administration was but there is no agreement on how much the U.S. should pledge to reduce emissions or to contribute to help developing nations meet emissions goals. Obviously, the recession and the burgeoning deficit are major factors.

Although many think Copenhagen will not produce a ratifiable, legally binding agreement, the conference will raise awareness of the issue around the world and possibly produce a realistic political document on the risks of climate change to bolster the overwhelming scientific evidence.

Perhaps the global focus will spur some nay-sayers, even the increasing number in the U.S., to rethink their views and accept reality.

Scripps Howard columnist Ann McFeatters has covered the White House and national politics since 1986. E-mail amcfeatters@nationalpress.com.