Signs still point to loss of house seat for Mass.

If Congressional districts nationwide were redrawn based on 2009 population estimates, Massachusetts would fall more than 70,000 heads short of what the state needs to retain its 10-member House delegation, according to a new study.

But researchers say Massachusetts can still avoid the need to pare its Congressional delegation down to nine with a thorough, aggressive Census count backed up by adequate state resources.

“I have seen numbers a little bit larger than that switching between the years,” said Kimball Brace, president of Election Data Services, the political consulting firm that released the study on state population trends. “So yes, that’s still doable.”

According to the study, Massachusetts is one of eight states poised to lose a Congressional seat – Ohio would lose two – if current population trends continue into 2010. Other states that would lose seats include Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Michigan, New Jersey, New York and Pennsylvania. Meanwhile, Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina, Utah and Washington could each pick up a seat based on population growth. States will redraw districts in time for elections in 2012.

If Massachusetts loses a seat, it will be up to the Legislature to redraw the lines, a process that will dictate which of the state’s House incumbents, all Democrats, will be squeezed by the decennial redistricting.

The report comes as a new round of Census population estimates showed Massachusetts gaining 50,000 residents between July 2008 and July 2009, the fastest growth rate since July 2000 to July 2001. According to the new data, the state’s population stands at about 6.59 million people. But although it has edged closer to the national average, Massachusetts’s rate of population growth still lags other states, according to the Election Data Services report. In fact, Brace said, between 2008 and 2009, Massachusetts’s moved further away from retaining its House seat, and would need to count 89,000 more people than expected to maintain its current delegation, based on that trend.

Adding to the challenge, state and local budgets are already under strain amid ongoing fiscal woes, and city and town clerks are dealing with reduced resources.

Brace said state funding efforts to ensure a full count “could have a dramatic impact,” particularly because much of Massachusetts’s population resides is “hard-to-count” urban areas.

Secretary of State William Galvin said the last time around, predictions that Massachusetts would lose a Congressional were proven wrong, noting that in 2000, the state beat estimated counts by 300,000.

“I obviously can’t predict that we can do that again,” he said. “Growth continues to increase in other parts of the country. I do believe that we have the potential, at least, to beat the estimate again.”

Galvin pointed to unexpected population losses in Florida, California and other “hot growth areas” and said Massachusetts has proved an anomaly in the Northeast by increasing its rate of growth.

Waltham City Clerk Rosario Malone, president of the Massachusetts City Clerks Association, said clerks haven’t requested extra money for their role in aiding the census count but added that if cities and towns are fully reimbursed for one-time expenses tied to administering the Jan. 19 U.S. Senate special election “we’ll be in pretty good shape.”

An October supplemental budget provided $5.4 million for the state’s share of special election costs, but House Ways and Means Chairman Charles Murphy said at the time that lawmakers would likely need to revisit special election funding to provide about $10 million for local officials to administer the election.

Galvin said a state audit declaring the special election costs to be an unfunded mandate would ensure that cities and towns receive necessary funding. He also questioned whether such funds would compete with census funds, noting that city and town clerks maintain an address list that has already been submitted to the federal government for use by the census counters.

Noting that the auditor estimated that special election costs would approach about $7 million, a House Ways and Means aide said House budget officials intend to wait until after the election to gauge the true cost to cities and towns.

According to U.S. Census officials, all Massachusetts households will be mailed short questionnaires in March with a request that they be filled out and returned quickly in a prepaid envelope that accompanies the form. School superintendents and principals have been asked to send literature home with students to alert their parents to the count. About 7,500 people are expected to be hired to canvass the Greater Boston area for those who do not respond to the mailed forms.

In 2000, the U.S. Census Bureau counted about 281 million people across the country. The numbers are applied to funding formulas to determine federal aid to the states.

Officials anticipate that among their greatest challenges in the 2010 census will be counting college students, who are often mobile and may not think to file their form in Massachusetts. In addition, many will be away on spring break when census forms are mailed to their apartments or dorms.

Penetrating hard-to-reach urban communities with non-English-speaking residents is also a challenge, officials say.